Wednesday, May 31, 2006

World Cup Countdown - Group B

England - Sweden - Paraguay - Trinidad and Tobago

Group B should be a stroll in the park for the two European sides. Paraguay are the worst qualifiers from the South American group and Trinidad, if truth be told, are here to make up the numbers. Having said that they do both own the key to this group, if they adopt a defensive strategy when they take on the Europeans. It is a strong possibility that they both see there game against each other as the one they can win and if they can manage to get a draw from their two opening games then it will be an all or nothing battle in the last group game.

The European teams need to be strong and take the game to the other two teams to make sure that their final group game is one to decide who will finish first or second in the group. Both sides have two much fire power for Paraguay and Trinidad and if they take the game to them there will only ever be one result. Having seen the Trinidad team take on Wales it will be really hard to see where they could get a point from. It could be that their fairy tale does not have a happy ending.

So who will top the group? No doubt about it, England. Sweden are an aging team and if anyone will be the team to suffer the upset result in the group. England may be without Wayne Rooney for the group games but they will not need him to beat these teams. There will be no surprises in Sven's opening team selection - injuries permitting - but look for him to give valuable time to the likes of Theo Walcott in the two opening games. A lot has been made of the lack of fitness of the strikers and the capability of their backups. England will win this group and - fingers crossed - the World Cup based on their world class defence and midfield. If Sven can unlock the combination to these then this is, without a shadow of a doubt, the best chance England have had of winning the World Cup in a long long time.

Monday, May 29, 2006

World Cup Countdown - Group A

Germany - Costa Rica - Ecuador - Poland

Group A is a difficult group to call. You have a very average Germany, a dark horse in Poland, an unknown in Ecuador and a rank outsider in Costa Rica. On paper everyone will be expecting both the European teams to go through. However you need to look beyond the obvious to get the outcome of this group. Given the right start this is the outcome that will happen, given the wrong start and we could see the hosts knocked out at a very early stage.

There is no doubt that this will be one of the most average German sides to have appeared at a World Cup for a long long time. It is hard to believe that they will have the tools to get passed anything more than an average side, and in this group there are two sides that may be considered slightly above average. Opening their campaign against Costa Rica and if they don't get the three points that there nation expects it could all go down hill from there. And that is what makes this group hard to read.

If Germany win their opening game and Poland draw with Ecuador they will be playing teams that will need to get a win, and it will be a test of their game on the break to see if they can contain them and the push onto win. Of course if the Germans fail to win there opening game they will have to come out and play and that could lead to them being caught out on the break as well. So really what this group could boil down to is: How bad are Costa Rica?

If you read the papers and believe the bookies then they have very little chance of scoring let alone winning a game. So if I base my predictive scores on this then it simply comes down to who puts the most goals past them, and that is more likely to be the adventurous European sides so I predict the group will finish something like this

1. Poland
2. Germany
3. Ecuador
4. Costa Rica

Monday, May 15, 2006

Coming Soon.....

Starting this week with 24 days to go will begin the Sports Potato World cup preview. Each day I will pick a different team and analyze their chances of progressing and predicting where they will finish overall. I will go throughout the groups alphabetically and will kick things off with the hosts Germany.

But do not be deceived the ultimate result for me will be the mighty England lifting the trophy on July 9th

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Weekend Review - Rugby League

Warrington Wolves

The Wolves suffered their first defeat in a while after losing to St. Helens on Friday night. The eventual margin of 12 points did not tell the story of a game where they were putting St. Helens under a lot of pressure until a breakaway try in the last minute. They will regret their loss of concentration at the end of the first half that saw St. Helens take what was a decisive 26-4 lead. The traditional second half fight back showed the character of the team but this time their opposition just proved too good for them. They can consider themselves unlucky that once they got back to within four points they did not face twelve men as their should have been a yellow card for Lyon Price after conceding a penalty try.

The lesson to learn from this is to play for the full first half, against teams like Wakefield and the Dragons you can concede a few points and expect chances to get them back. But you simply cannot do that against teams like St. Helens. It is evident that Warrington play well when they can lead from the front an put pressure on the opposition. This did not happen on Friday and they paid the price. We can just hope that this was a minor blip in the grand scheme of this season and that they will bounce back with another two points next week.

Weekend Review - Rugby Union

Wellington Hurricanes

The Wellington Hurricanes secured themselves a home semi-final against the Waratahs after defeating the same team this weekend in Australia. A hard fought 19-14 win sees them finish second in the Super 14 table four points behind the table topping Crusaders. This caps a very good season for the Hurricanes and they will be very disappointed if they do not go all the way to the final. They will be bitterly disappointed that they did not top the table as they will feel they should have beaten both the Cheetahs and the Brumbies.
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What they will be required to do will be to take the momentum of victory this week into the game next week and hope that they can get the same result. This will lead them into a game with either the Bulls or the Crusaders, obviously they would prefer the Bulls as it would be another home game, but I am sure after the wins they have had this season they will not be afraid to go to Christchurch. The key to winning will be the forwards getting quick ball for the backs. They have shown over the last few weeks that if they get time to play they can make the hard yards before giving the backs the ball. If they can get a quick score then they will have the Waratahs on the back foot and the crowd will the come into play and they will get to their first Super 14 final

Sunday, May 07, 2006

Weekend Review - Rugby League

Warrington Wolves

Warrington continued their run of good form by avenging their defeat to the Dragons with a comprehensive win. They have now moved to fourth in the table only one point behind Bradford and four points behind Leeds. They will get a good measure of how they have improved this season when they take on St. Helens next weekend. The only downside of this was the fractured cheekbone for Rob Palmer who will now be out for six to eight weeks.

The improvement since the disastrous first half against Wakefield has been enormous. They have beaten Leeds and Bradford twice and will want to continue on this form. The key to this will be the form of Lee Briers, when he performs then Warrington are almost unstoppable. It is hard to comprehend how he has not made it into the Great Britain squad. Their loss will definitely be Warringtons gain and they will look to put more pressure onto Bradford for that third place, and if they win next weekend then they will be looking at second place as a realistic target for the season

Weekend Review - Rugby Union

Wellington Hurricanes.

The Wellington Hurricanes secured their place in the semi-finals of the Super 14 with a hard earned two point victory over the Queensland Reds. This looks like a good result given all the upsets that have happened this weekend. This means that they will go into next weekends game knowing that a win will see them finish second and give them a home semi-final against the Waratahs, the same team they play this week. It has been a good season so far for the Hurricanes and it will be interesting to see the team they select next week.

There will be a temptation to rest a few key players, but with the thought of a home semi-final and the chance to take good momentum into this game may see a full strength side to be selected. Whatever happens they know that they will have to step up their defensive game over the next three weeks if they are to win the Super 14 title for the first time. They have started to concede too many points over the last few weeks and will need to stop this habit. They still have the back line that can destroy other sides, they now need to get the forwards to step up and stop the opposition making the hard yards. Fingers crossed that next week they travel well and can return to play one more game at the caketin.

Northampton Saints

The Saints finished their season with a loss the the Premiership champions Sale. This week they were unable to pull back the lead that they allowed the opposition to build. Whilst this season can be seen as a better one they need to work on this horrible habit of conceding a lot of points at the start of games leaving them playing catch up rugby for the best part of fifty minutes. This can be successful against the teams at the bottom, but against the champions you will always be on to a loser.

So it will be Heineken Rugby again next year which will mean that they will get a bit more TV money, and the chance to build a team that will challenge for the top four. The good news is that some of their key players will not be playing through the summer and should be well rested for next years campaign. No news on who will go or who will stay, but there will need to be changes for there to be an improvement next season. I am fairly optimistic and will be looking to better seasons from the likes of Thompson and Cohen that can take the Saints to the next level. The grading for this year is B+ lets hope for an A next year.

Monday, May 01, 2006

Weekend Review - Rugby Union

Two victories for my teams over the weekend that have gone a long way to making their seasons good ones.

Northampton Saints

For seventy minutes of their game against Bristol, they were staring down the barrel of a shut out. 16-0 behind and with just ten minutes left, the Saints turned their defense into attack and scored three tries in very quick succession to take the game 19-16. In securing the win the Saints also guaranteed themselves 6th place on the Premiership and Heineken Cup Rugby next season. It is a time to celebrate but also a time to reflect. As a team they got lucky, you cannot continue to give any teams a 16 point lead and expect to win. It's one of the reasons they are only 6th in the league. The team has to work on discipline, continuing to concede kickable penalties against good sides will only lead to defeat. They need to attack, and defend with the same consistency and they need to work out a way to get their key players to perform at all times. There is no doubt that Carlos Spencer will be a better player next year after spending this year bedding in, but there will need to be improvements across the board if they wish to get a higher placing and do well in the Heineken Cup

In the meantime, congratulations for making the best out of this season, and here's to a top four finish next year.

Wellington Hurricanes

The Hurricanes took a giant stride towards a semi-final place in this years Super 14 competition with a five point win over the Chiefs. They are now 6 points clear off fifth place and a win over the Reds next week will see them qualify for the semi-finals. The final score was a little bit flattering and the game was devoid of the usual backs play that the Hurricanes are most feared for. One notable achievement was the hattrick by Andrew Hore. The conditions were poor and dictated that this would be a forwards game, but neither side showed that they could adapt very well with consistent knock ons and dropped passes. Still the Hurricanes will not mind and will probably look to score a good win next week in order to rest some of their key players for the game against the Waratahs. But that will depend on the Crusaders, if they should slip up next weekend then the Hurricanes will be in a position to gain a home semi-final tie so may chose to field a full strength team in their final game.

So congratulations, but the celebrations on hold for a week and come out and destroy the Reds so we can all have a week off before the semi-finals start